Is traditional music retailing doomed?

Yes says a study quoted in MacWorld UK which states that by 2009 “virtually” all music will be downloaded. I have a bit of a problem with this for a number of reasons. First, how can anybody possibly foresee in this day and age of rapid technological progress anything that far ahead? Second, it is also quite possible that people will get so fed up with the constantly shifting technological requirements for playing and storing this downloadable music that they will demand a more robust medium that they can actually own, perhaps a type of plastic disc with music laser-encoded on it, kind of like….a CD. The reality will probably be quite similar to today with a combination of a physical medium like a CD or DVD and downloadable music in some sort of digital format like “super-duper MP3” that people will buy and use according to their personal preference. Downloads for the crap that you know is hot today but gone tomorrow and CDs or DVDs for the really cool stuff that you want to keep.
Later.